Dear Investor,

Zee here. Time of the month again, to share our monthly update on our portfolio. You can read last month’s portfolio update here.

Public Portfolio Update: June 2026

YTD performance: +20.57%

MTD performance: +3.97%

Cash left uninvested: 10%

Our Portfolio Review:

(I) June is usually a flat (slow or no growth) month, but there was 2 pull-back, which we re-entered our positions. See chart by EquityClock

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(II) Lesson learnt: we missed out on some of the May 2026 gains as our indicators showed an over-heated market, but that is fine, 1 bird in hand is better than 2 in the bushes.

Disclaimer:

All information here is for educational purposes only. This is not financial advice. Please do your own research and speak with a licensed advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. How we invest may not suit your investment goals and risk management profile.

Dear Investor.

Zee here. Most investors can name the two men behind Berkshire Hathaway: Warren Buffett, the calm and folksy “Oracle of Omaha,” and Charlie Munger, the sharp-tongued philosopher who sat beside him for decades. Their story is legendary: patient compounding, iron discipline, generational wealth.

But there was a third man. Just as brilliant. Just as well-positioned. And almost completely forgotten.

His name was Rick Guerin. And the reason he vanished from the Berkshire story isn’t a mystery.

It’s a warning.

The Three Amigos of Early Investing

Back in the 1960s and 1970s, Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, and Rick Guerin ran in the same intellectual circles. They analysed businesses together, shared ideas, and spotted undervalued opportunities in the market. By all accounts, Rick was every bit as sharp as his two famous friends.

All three were on a trajectory toward extraordinary wealth.

Then Rick disappeared from the story entirely.

Years later, famed investor Mohnish Pabrai sat down with Warren Buffett and asked the question that had been nagging at him:

“Whatever happened to Rick Guerin?”

Buffett’s answer is worth writing on a sticky note and putting on your monitor:

“Charlie and I always knew that we would become incredibly wealthy. We were not in a hurry to get wealthy; we knew it would happen. Rick was just as smart as us, but he was in a hurry.”

That single sentence contains a lifetime of financial wisdom.

But to truly understand what it means, you need to know what happened to Rick and why the same trap is swallowing investors today.

What Went Wrong: The 1973–1974 Crash and the Margin Trap

The early 1970s were brutal for markets. Between 1973 and 1974, the U.S. stock market plummeted nearly 70%. Companies that had seemed rock-solid saw their share prices collapse. It was one of the worst bear markets in modern history.

Rick Guerin had been using margin loans (borrowed money) to amplify his investment returns. When the market was rising, this strategy looked brilliant. But when the crash hit, the borrowed money became a trap.

To understand why, we need to briefly explain how margin works and why it is so dangerous.

What Is Margin?

Margin investing means borrowing money from your broker to buy more shares than you could with your own cash alone.

In good times, it supercharges your gains.

In bad times, it supercharges your losses and can wipe you out entirely.

Here is a simple example:

Say you have $10,000 and you want to buy shares in a company at $100 each. Without margin, you buy 100 shares.

With 50% margin, your broker lends you another $10,000, and you buy 200 shares instead.

When the stock rises 20% to $120:

• Your 200 shares are worth $24,000

• Subtract the $10,000 loan → your equity is $14,000

• That’s a +40% return on your original $10,000, double what you’d have made without borrowing

This is the part that gets people hooked.

But when the stock falls 20% to $80:

• Your 200 shares are worth $16,000

• Subtract the $10,000 loan → your equity is $6,000

• That’s a -40% loss on your original $10,000, again double the damage

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And here’s where it gets truly dangerous. If the stock falls far enough, in this example, about 33%, your broker will issue what’s called a margin call. This is a demand to deposit more cash into your account immediately to cover your shrinking equity.

If you can’t meet the margin call in time, the broker forcibly sells your shares at whatever price is available. You don’t get a say. You don’t get to wait for a recovery.

Some brokers don’t even warn you first, they simply auto-liquidate your position the moment you breach the minimum threshold.

And here’s the truly catastrophic part: if the forced sale doesn’t fully cover what you borrowed, you still owe the broker the difference.

You can end up with zero shares and a debt.

This is how investors go bankrupt, not from bad stock picks, but from borrowed money turning a recoverable loss into a total wipeout.

Rick’s Reckoning

This is exactly what happened to Rick Guerin in 1973–1974.

When the market crashed nearly 70%, Rick’s margin loans triggered margin calls he couldn’t meet. He was cornered. To stay afloat, he was forced to sell his most prized asset, his Berkshire Hathaway shares, to Warren Buffett at under $40 per share.

Today, a single Berkshire Hathaway Class A share trades at over $700,000.

Rick didn’t lose his wealth because he was foolish or ignorant. He lost it because he was in a hurry and borrowed money to speed up the journey. When the inevitable rough patch arrived, the borrowed money gave him no room to breathe, no ability to wait, no choice at all.

Warren and Charlie, who carried no margin debt, simply sat on their hands and waited.

The storm passed.

Their shares recovered.

And they compounded their wealth patiently for the next five decades.

The Lesson That Every Investor Needs to Hear

This story isn’t just history. The same drama plays out in markets around the world today.

In 2026, record levels of margin debt have been flooding into surging South Korean memory chip stocks, with retail investors, including retirees, borrowing money at 150% margin to chase a rally already well underway.

When a market that has risen sharply meets a cyclical downturn. Memory chip markets have historically seen 50–60% drawdowns.

Those leveraged investors won’t just lose money. Many will be wiped out and still owe their brokers.

The pattern is always the same: markets rise, people get greedy, borrowed money flows in, and when the inevitable correction comes, the leveraged investors are forced to sell at the worst possible moment, exactly when they should be holding or even buying more.

The Two Lesson from Rick

Rick Guerin’s story leads to two simple but powerful investing rules:

1. Don’t short-sell. A stock can theoretically rise forever, creating unlimited losses for those on the wrong side of the bet.

2. Don’t buy on margin. Borrowed money removes your most powerful investing tool: the ability to wait. Without that, even the right investment at the wrong time can end your portfolio permanently.

Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger understood something that Rick Guerin and countless investors since learned the hard way: the market will always give you opportunities, but only if you survive long enough to take them.

Patience Is the Real Edge

There’s a reason wealth-building feels slow and boring when done correctly. Compounding takes time. The best investments often look uneventful for years before they explode in value. The difference wasn’t intelligence.

Berkshire Hathaway shares were available under $40 in the early 1970s. Today they’re worth more than $700,000 each. The entire gain was available to anyone who simply bought and waited, no leverage needed, no margin required, no hurry.

Rick Guerin had access to all of that.

He just couldn’t wait.

Warren Buffett once said the stock market is a device for transferring wealth from the impatient to the patient. Rick Guerin transferred his Berkshire shares to one of the most patient investors alive, at $40 apiece.

Don’t be Rick.

Disclaimer:
All information here is for educational purposes only. This is not financial advice. Please do your own research and speak with a licensed advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. How we invest may not suit your investment goals and risk management profile..

Dear Investors.

Zee here. For over two decades, SpaceX remained one of the world’s most secretive and valuable private companies. Founded by Elon Musk in 2002, it revolutionized the space industry by developing reusable rockets and building a global satellite internet network.

Yesterday, June 12th, 2026, SpaceX officially debut on the Nasdaq stock exchange under the ticker symbol SPCX.

This is not a typical tech IPO. Investors bought into something far more complex and ambitious: a vertically integrated powerhouse that combines space exploration, artificial intelligence development, and social media all under one roof.

Join us on Wednesday, 17 June 2026, from 7:30–9:15pm SGT for our free live webinar.

We’ll cover:

* The resilient investing strategy that generated 44% returns per year in our public portfolio over the past 3 years

* Stock Analysis: SpaceX IPO - Trap or Generational Opportunity?

Join us if you’re looking to learn a clear method to invest in stocks, ETFs, and options without needing to be a “finance person”.

👉🏼 Click here to reserve a spot. (LINK)

WHAT IS SPACE X?

Before diving into the key IPO facts, it’s important to understand what SpaceX actually is today, because it’s more than just rockets.

SpaceX (The Core Business)

The original company, founded in 2002, builds and launches rockets. Its workhorse vehicle, the Falcon 9, has become the world’s most frequently launched orbital rocket. SpaceX also operates Starlink, a satellite internet network with thousands of satellites in orbit, bringing broadband to remote areas worldwide. For governments and private companies, SpaceX launches cargo missions, crewed spacecraft, and satellites. This division generated approximately $15-16 billion in revenue in 2025 and is expected to hit nearly $24 billion in 2026, making it the dominant revenue driver.

xAI (The AI Division)

In February 2026, Musk merged his artificial intelligence company xAI into SpaceX. xAI developed Grok, an AI chatbot designed to compete with ChatGPT and other large language models. This division also works on AI data center infrastructure and computing capabilities that could eventually power space-based operations. While smaller today, xAI represents Musk’s vision of integrating AI directly with SpaceX’s satellite and launch capabilities.

X (The Social Media Component)

Here’s the controversial part: xAI owns X (formerly Twitter), the social media platform Musk acquired in 2022. When you buy SpaceX stock, you’re also buying a stake in X. This platform has seen advertising revenue decline significantly while the company invests heavily in new features and AI integration. This is a major point of debate among potential investors.

The Structure

Think of it like Russian nesting dolls: SpaceX owns xAI, and xAI owns X. This integrated structure was finalized in February 2026 with a combined valuation of $1.25 trillion. While some investors see this as creating powerful synergies, others worry about the complexity and the inclusion of a struggling social media platform.

1. THE VALUATION IS HISTORIC AND EXTREME

SpaceX’s IPO is targeting a valuation of $1.8 to $2 trillion, with the company aiming to raise between $40 billion and $80 billion. To put this in perspective, this would be 3x larger than Saudi Aramco’s 2019 IPO, which previously held the record at $29 billion raised.

At a $1.8 trillion valuation, SpaceX would be valued at roughly 100-125 times its estimated 2025 revenue of $15-16 billion. By comparison, Apple trades at around 30-40 times revenue, and Amazon at roughly 2-3 times. Even if you believe in SpaceX’s growth story, this valuation assumes enormous future profits. Many analysts warn that even strong growth may not justify these multiples for years or decades.

You’re paying a premium price based on future potential, not current earnings.

2. ELON MUSK KEEPS CONTROL WHICH IS A DOUBLE-EDGED SWORD

The IPO filing reveals that SpaceX will be a “controlled company,” meaning Elon Musk will maintain effective control through super-voting shares and other governance mechanisms even after going public.

The upside: A visionary founder with clear control can make bold, long-term decisions without constantly worrying about quarterly earnings. Musk has repeatedly made unconventional bets that paid off, from the Falcon 9 landing innovation to Starlink’s rapid expansion.

The downside: Shareholders have limited ability to influence major decisions. If Musk makes a strategic move you disagree with, like redirecting resources to xAI or X, you have limited recourse. There’s also the risk that his attention gets divided across too many ventures.

You’re not just buying a company; you’re buying into Elon Musk’s vision, for better or worse.

3. YOU’RE FORCED TO BUY TWITTER

Let’s be direct: if you buy SpaceX stock, you own a piece of X (formerly Twitter). There’s no way to separate them.

X has been losing money significantly. Advertising revenue fell by $100 million in the first quarter of 2026 alone after the company overhauled its ad technology. While xAI itself is a money-losing operation ($2.5 billion in losses over six months on minimal revenue), the hope is that AI integration will eventually make both entities profitable.

Some investors are excited about owning a stake in Musk’s AI ambitions and the controversial but influential social media platform. Others see it as an unnecessary anchor dragging down the otherwise promising SpaceX business. You don’t get to choose, it comes as a package deal.

Before buying SPCX shares, you need to be comfortable owning Twitter. If you’re not, this IPO might not be right for you.

4. THE IPO TIMING MATTERS

Historical pattern: Most IPOs see prices spike on day one as retail investors rush in, then pull back significantly within weeks or months. The record-setting IPO price is often not the best entry point. Companies like Alibaba, Facebook, and Snap all saw significant declines within 6-12 months of their debuts, despite strong businesses.

The 6-month rule: Professional investors often wait at least six months after an IPO to evaluate whether the stock settles at a rational valuation. Early investors are betting on momentum and hype, not fundamentals.

There’s no rush. If SpaceX is a good investment at $1.8 trillion today, it will still be a good investment next year, potentially at a lower price.

5. REVENUE GROWTH IS IMPRESSIVE, BUT PROFITABILITY QUESTIONS LOOM

Here’s the bullish case: SpaceX generated roughly $15-16 billion in revenue in 2025 and is expected to reach $23-24 billion in 2026. Some reports suggest SpaceX achieved $8 billion in profit in 2025, which would be an impressive 50%+ margin.

The challenges:

• Starlink is capital-intensive: While Starlink is the fastest-growing segment, it requires constant investment in satellites and ground infrastructure

• Government contracts are unpredictable: SpaceX relies heavily on NASA and Department of Defense contracts, which can be subject to policy changes

• International competition is heating up: European and Chinese space programs are investing heavily in reusable rockets and satellite internet

• xAI and X are money-losing: These subsidiaries are currently drains on cash flow, though they could theoretically become profitable with AI monetization

The core SpaceX business looks solid, but the overall company’s profitability remains uncertain once you factor in the losses at xAI and X.

THE BOTTOM LINE

SpaceX’s IPO represents something genuinely historic: a chance to own a stake in a company reshaping space exploration, satellite internet, and AI development.

The valuation is audacious, the business fundamentals are solid (for SpaceX proper), and Elon Musk’s control ensures bold strategic decisions.

But it’s also expensive, complex, includes Twitter as an unwanted package, and assumes enormous future profitability.

For conservative investors, waiting 6-12 months for the stock to settle might make more sense than buying at the opening bell.

If you’re uncertain, there’s nothing wrong with watching from the sidelines at least for now.

Disclaimer:

All information here is for educational purposes only. This is not financial advice. Please do your own research and speak with a licensed advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. How we invest may not suit your investment goals and risk management profile.

Dear Investor,

Zee here. When most people think of Meta, they think of Facebook, Instagram, or WhatsApp. But for investors, Meta has become much more than a social media company.

Over the past few years, the company has gone through major shifts from aggressive hiring and costly metaverse investments to mass layoffs, AI expansion, and record-breaking revenues.

Despite concerns about competition from TikTok, privacy changes, and slowing user growth, Meta has managed to remain one of the world’s most profitable tech giants.

Today, investors are paying close attention to how Meta balances three things at once:
(I) growing its advertising business
(II) investing heavily in artificial intelligence, and
(III) controlling costs after years of rapid expansion.

What Does Meta Actually Do?

Meta Platforms (Nasdaq: META) is the company behind some of the world's most-used apps: Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Messenger.

More than 3.5 billion people use at least one of its apps every single day. Meta makes the vast majority of its money by showing ads to those users. More recently, it has been betting heavily on artificial intelligence and, earlier, on virtual reality.

Think of Meta as a giant billboard company, except the billboards are inside apps that billions of people use to talk, share photos, and scroll through news.

1. Revenue just had its fastest growth since 2021

In Q1 2026, Meta reported $56.5 billion in revenue, a 33% jump from the same period last year. That’s the fastest pace of growth the company has seen in nearly five years.

AI has quietly turbocharged Meta’s core advertising business: its ads are shown to more people (+19% more ad impressions) and each ad now earns more (+12% higher price per ad).

Earnings per share came in at $7.31, beating Wall Street’s estimate of $6.79.

Simply put: the business is firing on all cylinders right now.

2. Meta is swinging for the AI fences and spending billions to do it

Mark Zuckerberg has made AI the company’s defining obsession. In June 2025, Meta invested $14.3 billion for a 49% stake in Scale AI and poached its CEO, Alexandr Wang, to head a new internal team called Meta Superintelligence Labs.

In April 2026, that team released its first AI model, called Muse Spark, as Meta races to keep up with OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic.

Zuckerberg’s stated goal: deliver “personal superintelligence to billions of people.” Whether that’s vision or marketing, the money behind it is very real.

3. 8,000 jobs cut

In May 2026, Meta began laying off roughly 8,000 employees, about 10% of its global workforce in three waves.

Among those let go: workers on the content integrity team (the people who remove harmful content), cybersecurity staff, and content designers.

This follows a pattern Meta has repeated before: cut costs in some areas, then re-invest in AI. US workers received 16 weeks of severance plus two extra weeks per year of service.

For investors, leaner headcount can mean better profit margins but critics worry it hollows out safety operations at a critical moment.

4. 3.56 billion daily users but growth slightly missed targets

Meta's apps are used by an almost incomprehensible number of people every day, 3.56 billion as of March 2026, up 4% from a year ago. However, this was a slight dip from Q4 2025 (when the figure was 3.58 billion), and it missed analyst expectations of 3.62 billion.

Meta blamed two specific events: internet disruptions caused by the Iran conflict, and Russia's restrictions on WhatsApp access.

The number to watch isn't just the total, it's whether those 3.5+ billion users keep engaging deeply enough to see (and click) more ads.

5. 2026 outlook is strong but costs are enormous

For Q2 2026, Meta guided revenue of $58–61 billion, another strong quarter if achieved. The company expects full-year 2026 expenses of $162–169 billion, reflecting its massive AI infrastructure build-out.

With $81 billion in cash on hand and strong free cash flow, Meta can afford this spending. The key question for investors: will the AI bets eventually produce new revenue streams (beyond just better ads), or will the returns stay indirect?

For now, the market is rewarding Meta’s momentum but patience will be tested as those capital expenditures pile up.

Disclaimer:

All information here is for educational purposes only. This is not financial advice. Please do your own research and speak with a licensed advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. How we invest may not suit your investment goals and risk management profile.

Dear Investors.

Zee here. Not long ago, Robinhood was just the scrappy app that let you buy a slice of Apple stock without paying a broker’s fee. It ruffled feathers on Wall Street, got blamed for turning investing into a game, and became the symbol of a generation that wanted in on markets on their own terms.

Fast forward to today, and Robinhood is barely recognizable.

The platform now manages over $345 billion in customer assets, serves 27.4 million funded accounts, and has quietly built itself into something far more ambitious than a trading app. It offers banking, credit cards, AI-powered investment insights, cryptocurrency, and in its boldest move yet, lets everyday people bet real money on world events through prediction markets.

In the first quarter of 2026, Robinhood brought in $1.07 billion in revenue.

That’s not startup territory anymore. That’s a serious financial company.

Join us on Wednesday, 17 June 2026, from 7:30–9:15pm SGT for our free live webinar.

We’ll cover:

* The resilient investing strategy that generated 44% returns per year in our public portfolio over the past 3 years

* Stock Analysis: SpaceX IPO - Trap or Generational Opportunity?

Join us if you’re looking to learn a clear method to invest in stocks, ETFs, and options without needing to be a “finance person”.

👉🏼 Click here to reserve a spot. (LINK)

What Does Robinhood Actually Do?

Robinhood (ticker: HOOD) is a US-based financial super-app. It lets everyday people buy and sell stocks, ETFs, options, and cryptocurrencies, usually with zero trading commissions. Think of it as the app that made investing feel as easy as online shopping.

Today, it has grown far beyond simple stock trading, adding banking, AI tools, credit cards, and access to private company shares.

1. Revenue hit $1.07 billion, up 15% from last year

Robinhood’s Q1 2026 results showed steady growth, with revenues rising 15% year-over-year to reach $1.07 billion. More money is flowing in too, customers deposited a net $18 billion in the quarter, growing at a 22% annualised rate. That means people are not just opening accounts; they’re actively putting more money to work on the platform.

“Robinhood is increasingly positioned at the centre of our customers’ financial lives, just as we enter the early innings of the Great Wealth Transfer.” — CEO Vlad Tenev

The “Great Wealth Transfer” Tenev mentions refers to the trillions of dollars expected to pass from Baby Boomers to younger generations in the coming decades and Robinhood is betting it will be the platform those younger investors use.

2. Prediction markets are now Robinhood’s fastest-growing product ever.

Prediction markets let you bet real money on the outcome of real-world events: elections, sports matches, economic data releases, and more. Robinhood launched the feature roughly a year ago, and the growth has been staggering: over 11 billion contracts traded by more than one million customers.

In Q1 2026, prediction markets hit record trading volumes on the platform. April tracked towards roughly $3 billion in volume, the second-best month ever. Robinhood has gone so far as to acquire a licensed exchange (MIAXdx) through a joint venture to build proper infrastructure for this business.

“Robinhood is the largest retail brokerage firm in prediction markets.” — CEO Vlad Tenev, Q1 2026 earnings call

What does this mean for you as an investor? It’s a brand-new revenue stream that doesn’t depend on stock market swings or crypto bull runs, which could make Robinhood’s earnings more stable over time.

3. Robinhood Cortex: AI that reads the market so you don’t have to

Robinhood launched Cortex, its AI-powered investing assistant, and it’s already being used by nearly one million customers. Cortex delivers personalized “Digests”, think of them as a morning briefing tailored to your specific portfolio, written by AI in plain language.

The latest version, called Cortex Assistant, is rolling out across the app and offers real-time, AI-powered insights as you trade. It can flag unusual moves in stocks you hold, summarise earnings reports, and help you understand what market news actually means for your investments.

For investors who don’t have hours to parse financial news daily, Cortex could become a genuinely useful edge.

It’s bundled with Robinhood Gold, the platform’s premium subscription that now has 4.3 million members, up 36% year-on-year.

4. A big crypto stumble but an even bigger crypto roadmap ahead

Here’s the not-so-rosy part: crypto revenue dropped sharply in Q1 2026 after a record-breaking Q4 2024 ($358 million). This disappointed investors and sent the stock price down about 13% after earnings. When people trade crypto less, Robinhood earns less in transaction fees.

But management isn’t pulling back. Instead, Robinhood has announced a sweeping 2026 crypto expansion including wider access across the US and Europe, new trading products, and even plans to build its own blockchain network (Layer 2).

They’ve also invested $75 million in OpenAI, signaling ambitions to be more than just a trading app.

5. SpaceX, private markets, and the democratization of exclusive investing

One of Robinhood’s boldest moves is giving everyday investors access to deals that were once reserved for the ultra-wealthy. The platform is positioning itself as a key gateway for retail investors to access high-profile private company shares, including pre-IPO exposure tied to the anticipated SpaceX listing.

Robinhood Banking has also quietly crossed $2 billion in deposits from over 125,000 customers. And the platform now offers credit cards, financial advisory services, and professionally managed portfolios.

In short, it’s building everything you’d need from a financial services company in one app.

Disclaimer:

All information here is for educational purposes only. This is not financial advice. Please do your own research and speak with a licensed advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. How we invest may not suit your investment goals and risk management profile.

Dear Investor,

Zee here. Time of the month again, to share our monthly update on our portfolio. You can read last month’s portfolio update here.

Public Portfolio Update: May 2026

YTD performance: +15.94%

MTD performance: +3.10%

Cash left uninvested: Full cash

Note: No new additions to the portfolio.

Our Portfolio Review:

(I) The market is severely overbought (expensive) and have been trading 8% above the Moving Average 100 (MA100). Typically, anything more than 6% is considered overbought but 8% is way overbought.

(II) I am expecting the market to pullback 3-4% from current prices, given that earnings season is over.

(III) However, if the market continues going up parabolically, the bubble will burst.

(IV) According to Buffett Indicator, the Stock Market is Significantly Overvalued and likely to return -1.2% a year from this level of valuation, including dividends.

Announcement:

Starting June 2026, we will discontinue our weekly Thursday newsletters as we are doing more investing classes now, find out about our programs here. Nonetheless, we will still post every Saturday.

Disclaimer:

All information here is for educational purposes only. This is not financial advice. Please do your own research and speak with a licensed advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. How we invest may not suit your investment goals and risk management profile.

Dear Investor,

Zee here. After our deep-dive on Visa previously, several of you asked for the same on Mastercard, Visa’s quieter, arguably more interesting rival.

At first glance, the two companies look almost identical: both own payment networks, both earn fees on every transaction, both are absurdly profitable.

But spend a little time under the hood and the differences start to matter, especially right now, when Mastercard is making some of the boldest bets in its history on AI, stablecoins, and a future where software agents do your shopping for you.

What Does Mastercard Actually Do?

Every time someone taps a Mastercard at a shop, pays online, or moves money across borders, Mastercard’s network invisibly connects the buyer’s bank to the seller’s bank in seconds. For providing that connection, Mastercard charges a small fee.

Here’s what makes this business model special:

• Mastercard does NOT lend money or hold customer deposits, that’s the bank’s job

• Mastercard earns a small ‘toll’ on every transaction that crosses its network

• It operates in over 210 countries, processing billions of transactions per day

• The more global commerce grows, the more Mastercard earns automatically

Think of it like owning the road, not the cars. Mastercard doesn’t care whether you buy shoes or a car, it just wants traffic on its highway.

This ‘asset-light’ model means very high profit margins and strong, consistent cash flows.

1. Strong results but geopolitics caused a stock dip

Mastercard beat every target in Q1 2026.

Despite all this, the stock fell after the report. The culprit: cross-border travel spending.

When people travel internationally and spend abroad, Mastercard earns higher fees than on domestic transactions. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East dampened international flights and tourism, creating a meaningful dent in one of Mastercard's most profitable revenue lines.

2. Services now make up 40% of revenue and they’re growing twice as fast

Here’s the part of the Mastercard story that doesn’t get enough attention: the company has quietly become a financial technology services business, not just a payment processor.

These “Value Added Services and Solutions” (VASS), fraud tools, cybersecurity software, data analytics, digital identity verification grew 18% year-on-year and now represent approximately 40% of total net revenue. A decade ago, this number was negligible.

Why does this matter to investors? Two reasons.

First, these services are stickier than transaction fees, banks sign multi-year contracts and rarely switch.

Second, they're less cyclical: even if spending slows in a downturn, financial institutions still need fraud detection and cybersecurity. Services provide a buffer that pure payment revenue cannot.

3. A $1.8 billion bet on the future of money

In March 2026, Mastercard announced it would acquire BVNK, a company that builds infrastructure for stablecoins for up to $1.8 billion, including $300 million in performance-based payments.

If you haven’t heard of stablecoins, they’re digital currencies pegged to a real-world asset like the US dollar. Think of them as digital cash that can travel across the internet instantly, cheaply, and without a bank in the middle.

BVNK already powers stablecoin infrastructure for financial institutions across multiple markets. Acquiring it means Mastercard can now offer a complete bridge between traditional banking rails and the crypto world, letting clients pay out in stablecoins, settle cross-border invoices instantly, and accept digital assets alongside regular currency.

As regulatory frameworks for stablecoins come into focus, in the US, EU, Singapore, and the UK, the commercial opportunity grows. Businesses that want to pay international suppliers in stablecoins, or offer customers digital dollar wallets, will need infrastructure to do so. Mastercard wants to be that infrastructure.

4. Mastercard is building an AI

Most companies talk about using AI. Mastercard is doing something more interesting: building its own.

The company is developing what it calls a Large Tabular Model (LTM), its own foundation AI trained not on text or images like ChatGPT, but on billions of anonymized payment transactions. Working with Nvidia and Databricks, the model learns patterns across spending behavior, fraud signatures, merchant data, and authorization events.

Because all personal data is stripped before training, privacy is protected but the patterns remain. The model can learn to predict which transactions look fraudulent before the card is declined, which merchants are growing before the data is public, and which offers a cardholder is most likely to respond to.

Here's the key insight: unlike a general AI tool that any company can license, Mastercard's LTM is trained on data only Mastercard has. No competitor, not Visa, not any fintech, can replicate this without decades of equivalent transaction history. It is, in the truest sense, a competitive moat built from data.

5. AI is about to start spending money and Mastercard wants to be the trust layer

This is the most forward-looking story in Mastercard’s portfolio, and possibly the most significant for long-term investors.

We are at the early edge of “agentic commerce”, a world where AI assistants don’t just recommend things but actually buy them on your behalf. Imagine telling your AI: “Book me a return flight to Tokyo next month, under $1,200, aisle seat.” And it just does it — no checkout page, no card details, no confirmation to forward.

For this to work at scale, there needs to be a trusted payment layer that can verify: Is this AI agent authorized to spend? Was the purchase within pre-set limits? Is the merchant legitimate? That’s exactly what Mastercard’s Agent Pay programme provides.

Mastercard has already completed authenticated agentic transactions in Singapore with DBS and UOB, the first live, verified AI-initiated payments on its network. It has also announced an expanded partnership with OpenAI to accelerate these capabilities globally.

The commercial logic is straightforward: every AI agent that books, buys, or pays generates a transaction. Those transactions flow through Mastercard’s network. More AI adoption means more volume, more fees, without a single new human cardholder needed.

Disclaimer:

All information here is for educational purposes only. This is not financial advice. Please do your own research and speak with a licensed advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. How we invest may not suit your investment goals and risk management profile.

Dear Investor.

Zee here. For the first time in 60 years, Warren Buffett watched Berkshire Hathaway’s 2026 Annual General Meeting from the audience.

He didn’t chair the stage. He sat in the crowd.

It was a quiet, symbolic passing of the torch and yet, when he sat down with CNBC journalist Becky Quick afterward, everything he said felt as sharp as ever.

Here’s what stood out.

“I’m Smart in Spots”

When asked to reflect on 60 years in business, Buffett was characteristically honest: only about five of those years were truly exceptional.

The rest? Just staying in his lane.

He referenced an old quote from Tom Watson Sr., the founder of IBM: “I’m smart in spots and I stay around those spots.”

That’s Buffett’s entire philosophy in one sentence. Not genius. Not luck. Just relentless discipline about what you know and the courage to do nothing when you don’t.

That discipline is what explains Berkshire’s eye-watering $380 billion cash pile.

It isn’t a prediction that markets will crash. It’s simply the result of not finding enough good things to buy.

When the bar is high, cash accumulates. Simple as that.

The Church with a Casino Attached

This was the line of the day. Buffett described today’s financial markets as “a church with a casino attached.”

Both have grown. But the casino? It’s gotten a lot more attractive lately.

His specific concern was same day options trading financial contracts that expire within 24 hours. He was careful about how he described it.

Not investing. Not even speculating. Gambling.

The instruments exist, the platforms are slick, and millions of people are pulling levers without fully understanding the odds stacked against them.

The church, the serious, long-term allocation of capital to real businesses is still there. But it’s harder to hear the sermon when the slot machines are so loud.

The Phones Go Quiet

So when does Buffett buy? His answer was almost poetic.

“The most likely time to buy things is when nobody else will answer their phones.”

The trading desks that boast endlessly about their capabilities and relationships, they go silent when markets seize up. The very moments that feel most terrifying are the ones when serious capital can be deployed at serious discounts.

The best opportunities don’t come from being clever.

They come from being willing to pick up the phone when everyone else has left the building.

Don’t Worry. Pay Attention.

On the topic of risk and fear, Buffett made a distinction worth writing down:

Worry does no good. Cognizance does.

The things that get openly discussed, the risks that fill newspaper headlines and conference panels, rarely become the crises people fear. Real damage comes from what nobody saw coming.

He pointed to Paul Samuelson’s economics textbook, a landmark work running nearly 900 pages. It contained no entry for zero interest rates, arguably the most consequential economic development of the past generation.

Nobody had it on their radar. That’s how risk actually works.

The Takeaway

Buffett’s message, stripped down, is this: the market has always had a gambling problem, but it’s getting worse. The antidote isn’t cleverness, it’s patience, self-awareness, and the willingness to act when others are paralyzed.

He’s 94. He sat in the audience instead of on the stage.

And somehow, in 25 minutes, he said more than most investors communicate in a lifetime.

The church is still open.

You just have to choose which door you walk through.

Disclaimer:

All information here is for educational purposes only. This is not financial advice. Please do your own research and speak with a licensed advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. How we invest may not suit your investment goals and risk management profile.

Dear Investor.

Zee here. Recently, my friend and also our student Jonathan shared a clever travel hack for the Marriott Bonvoy program: instead of the usual 50-nights requirement, he qualified for Marriott Bonvoy Platinum through a 16-nights challenge.

He then used a strategy of selling options (we teach this in our classes too) to offset the cost of those 16 nights, effectively letting the stock market help fund his hotel stays.

The payoff: Marriott Bonvoy Platinum status, unlocking suite upgrades (when available), lounge access, and a relaxed 4pm late checkout.

That got me digging into how Marriott structures its loyalty ecosystem and business model, and how programs like this are designed not just to reward travel, but to drive repeat stays and long-term brand loyalty.

Marriott International (NASDAQ: MAR) has delivered strong share price performance in recent years, with the stock rising more than 50% over the past year and over 140% over the last five years.

The gains have been supported by resilient global travel demand, particularly in higher-end and luxury hospitality segments, which have contributed to broader strength across the hotel industry.

During the same period, the broader hotel and motel industry gained roughly 23%, meaning Marriott has materially outperformed many of its industry peers.

How Does Marriott Make Money?

Here’s the thing most people get wrong about Marriott. They think it’s a hotel company as in, it owns hotels.

It doesn’t. Not really.

Marriott’s actual business is collecting fees. It manages and franchises hotels that are owned by other investors and real estate developers. Someone else builds the property, takes on the debt, and bears the construction risk. Marriott lends its brand: Sheraton, Westin, W Hotels, Ritz-Carlton, Courtyard, and more than 30 others and collects a percentage of revenue for doing so.

Think of it like a franchise system. A franchisee opens a McDonald’s, invests their own capital, and pays McDonald’s a royalty. Marriott works the same way, just with beds instead of burgers.

This “asset-light” model is what makes Marriott so interesting as an investment. When hotels do well, Marriott earns more in fees. When hotels struggle, the pain falls mostly on the property owners, not Marriott. The company gets upside exposure to travel, without carrying the full downside of owning physical real estate.

1. They Just Beat Earnings And Raised Their Outlook

Marriott’s Q1 2026 results came in stronger than Wall Street expected. Adjusted earnings per share reached $2.72, beating the analyst forecast of $2.55 by a meaningful margin. Revenue for the quarter came to $6.65 billion, up 6% compared to the same period last year.

The key metric for any hotel company is RevPAR, revenue per available room. It’s essentially a measure of how much money each hotel room is generating on average. Global RevPAR increased 4.2% during the quarter, helped by improvements in both occupancy rates and average daily room prices.

Following the beat, management slightly raised its full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $11.51 at the midpoint. When a company beats and raises, it usually tells you that demand is holding up better than feared.

2. Marriott Portfolio Is Growing Fast

One of the most underappreciated parts of Marriott’s story is how relentlessly it keeps adding new rooms to its system. More rooms means more fees. More fees means more earnings, without Marriott needing to spend its own money building anything.

Marriott added roughly 15,900 net rooms during the quarter, expanding its worldwide portfolio to more than 9,900 properties with nearly 1.8 million rooms.

Marriott’s development pipeline reached a record 4,107 properties representing nearly 618,000 rooms, with 43% of those rooms currently under construction. That’s future fee income already in the works and the company didn’t have to build any of it.

For long-term investors, this pipeline is the engine. Even in a year where travel demand softens, room growth compounds the fee base. Marriott has guided for net rooms growth of 4.5% to 5% for the full year 2026, a pace that quietly but steadily expands the business.

3. Bonvoy Is Becoming a Business in Its Own Right

Marriott Bonvoy is the company’s loyalty programme, it has over 271 million members. Most people think of loyalty points as just a marketing gimmick. But for Marriott, Bonvoy has become a genuine revenue engine.

The programme is linked to co-branded credit cards issued by banks like Chase and American Express. Every time a Bonvoy cardholder swipes their card, Marriott earns a royalty fee.

The headline catalyst for 2026 is a projected 35% jump in co-branded credit card fees, loyalty-linked products that collect royalties from card partners, driven by both a renegotiated royalty rate and continued high-spend growth across Marriott’s 34-card, 11-country Bonvoy program.

This is a meaningful diversification of income. Hotel fees move with travel demand. Card royalties move with consumer spending more broadly. It makes the business stickier and more resilient over time.

The Bonvoy app and platform also give Marriott direct access to its guests, reducing reliance on booking platforms like Expedia or Booking.com, which typically take a cut of every reservation.

The more guests book directly through Bonvoy, the more margin Marriott keeps.

4. The Middle East Is a Real Headwind Right Now

Not everything is going Marriott’s way.

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has been materially disrupting travel across the region. The outlook assumes continued Middle East travel disruption, including an expected roughly 50% RevPAR decline in the region during the second quarter, which would reduce full-year global RevPAR growth by 100 to 125 basis points.

Management has assumed Middle East disruptions continue through the end of 2026. The Middle East accounts for about 3% of Marriott’s open rooms but around 7% of its development pipeline, meaning future growth in the region is also at risk of delay.

To put it simply: a 100 to 125 basis point drag on RevPAR growth is meaningful when you’re guiding for 2% to 3% total. It shaves a significant chunk off an already modest target.

The silver lining? Marriott’s international diversification means no single region can derail the business. The company added more than 7,300 net rooms in international markets just in Q1 alone, and Asia-Pacific in particular continues to post strong growth.

The Middle East pain is real, but it’s also contained.

5. They Are Returning a Lot of Cash to Shareholders

One of the privileges of an asset-light business is that it generates cash without needing to constantly reinvest in physical assets. Marriott has been putting that cash to work, returning it to shareholders through buybacks and dividends.

During the quarter, Marriott repurchased 2.1 million shares for approximately $700 million. Including dividends and buybacks, the company has returned more than $1.2 billion to shareholders so far this year through April 29.

For the full year 2026, gross fee revenue is guided to rise 8% to 10% in 2026, with adjusted EPS growth projected at 13% to 15%, materially above the revenue growth rate, reflecting operating leverage and a meaningful reduction in share count from over $4.3 billion in planned capital returns.

That last part is worth pausing on. EPS growing faster than revenue is a classic sign of buyback leverage, fewer shares outstanding means each remaining share earns a bigger slice of the pie. If management executes on that $4.3 billion return target, shareholders benefit even if revenue growth is modest.

Bottom line

Marriott is a genuinely well-constructed business. The fee model insulates it from the capital-heavy risks of owning real estate. The Bonvoy loyalty platform is becoming an asset in its own right. The development pipeline is compounding quietly in the background. And the capital return programme rewards patient shareholders.

The risks are real too, a heavy debt load of $16.5 billion, sensitivity to geopolitical disruption, and a valuation that prices in a lot of continued growth already. This is not a “screaming bargain” stock. It is, however, a high-quality business that serious investors should understand.

Disclaimer:

All information here is for educational purposes only. This is not financial advice. Please do your own research and speak with a licensed advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. How we invest may not suit your investment goals and risk management profile.

Dear Investor.

Zee here. It is May 2026. The S&P 500 has clawed back most of its losses from the US-Iran war sell-off earlier this year.

Markets are rising again, sentiment is improving, and the financial headlines are turning cautiously optimistic.

Which makes right now exactly the right moment to ask an uncomfortable question: Are we paying too much?

What “too high” actually means

When investors say a market is “overvalued,” they usually mean one thing: you are paying more for a dollar of corporate earnings than history suggests is reasonable.

The standard yardstick for this is the Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, simply the price of the market divided by the earnings of its companies. If the S&P 500 trades at a P/E of 20, you are paying $20 for every $1 of annual profit. The higher the number, the more expensive stocks are relative to what businesses are actually earning.

Think of it like buying a rental property. If you pay $1,000,000 for a flat that earns $50,000 in rent per year, your “price-to-earnings” is 20x. If you pay $2,000,000 for the same flat, it’s 40x. The building hasn’t changed, only the price you’re willing to pay for it.

Here are the numbers

The S&P 500’s current trailing P/E sits at roughly 32x earnings, depending on which measure you use. The long-run historical average is closer to 16–18x.

But the more revealing figure is the Shiller CAPE ratio, a smoothed version of P/E that averages inflation-adjusted earnings over ten years, ironing out short-term noise.

Robert Shiller, the Yale economist who called both the dot-com bubble and the 2008 housing crisis, developed it precisely because single-year earnings can be distorted.

As of 8th May 2026, the Shiller CAPE stands at approximately 42x. The long-run average is 17x.

So is a crash coming?

Not necessarily, and this is where nuance matters.

High valuations do not cause crashes. They simply mean that future returns are likely to be lower than they would be if you bought at cheaper prices. The market can stay expensive for years. It did through most of the late 1990s, right up until it didn’t.

There are also legitimate reasons why today’s market might deserve a premium over its historical average. The S&P 500 is now dominated by large technology and software businesses, companies like Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia that are structurally more profitable and faster-growing than the manufacturers and industrials that dominated the index decades ago.

Higher-quality businesses arguably deserve higher prices. Net profit margins climb as companies increases their prices.

Then there is the AI Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) story and it is genuinely staggering. In 2026, Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta are collectively on track to spend $725 billion on capital expenditure, up 77% from last year’s already-record $410 billion. Almost all of it is going into AI infrastructure: data centres, chips, and networking. Amazon’s CEO has said AI capacity is getting monetised “as fast as we install it.” Google Cloud just posted 63% year-on-year revenue growth.

This matters for valuation in two ways.

#1 This compresses near-term margins all that spending makes the market look more expensive on current earnings than it might actually be.

#2 If the bet pays off and AI drives a step-change in corporate productivity over the next five to ten years, earnings could grow fast enough to justify today’s prices in hindsight.

The CAPE ratio, which smooths earnings over a full decade, would be slow to reflect that kind of structural shift, potentially making the market look more overvalued than it truly is.

The takeaway

The US stock market is currently expensive by almost every historical measure. That is a fact, not a prediction.

Whether that expensiveness leads to a painful correction or gets resolved gradually through years of steady earnings growth, nobody knows.

The sensible path: time in market beats timing the market

Disclaimer:

All information here is for educational purposes only. This is not financial advice. Please do your own research and speak with a licensed advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. How we invest may not suit your investment goals and risk management profile.

Dear Investor.

Zee here. Most people still think of Axon as the company that makes Tasers. That's understandable, they invented the modern stun gun and put a body camera on virtually every police officer in America.

But in 2026, Axon is building something far bigger: a full AI-powered operating system for public safety.

From the moment someone dials 911, to the moment a verdict is read in a courtroom, Axon wants to own every step of that journey with software, data, and artificial intelligence doing the heavy lifting.

What Does Axon Actually Do?

Think of Axon as the technology backbone of modern law enforcement. Most people know them as the company behind the TASER, the non-lethal device used by police worldwide. But today, that’s just one small piece of a much bigger story.

Axon builds an end-to-end ecosystem for public safety. This includes body cameras worn by officers, cloud software to store and manage all that video evidence, digital tools for police departments to run their operations, and, increasingly, artificial intelligence layered across all of it.

Their flagship software platform, Axon Evidence, is like a secure “Google Drive for law enforcement,” storing millions of hours of body cam footage and connecting it to investigations and court cases.

In short: Axon wants to be involved in every moment of a public safety event, from the first 911 call, all the way to the courtroom verdict.

1. The Numbers Are Getting Better

Axon just wrapped up 2025 on a very strong note. In Q4 2025 alone, the company brought in $797 million in revenue, a 39% jump compared to the same quarter a year earlier. For the full year, revenue hit $2.78 billion.

But here’s what really stands out for investors: bookings (essentially, contracts signed for future revenue) topped $7 billion for the full year, a 40%+ increase. Q4 bookings alone surged over 50%. Think of bookings as a window into future revenue; when they grow this fast, it tells you customers are committing to Axon for years ahead.

Their software and services division, the highest-margin part of the business, grew 40% year-over-year, which is a key signal that Axon is successfully transitioning from a hardware company into a recurring-revenue software powerhouse.

2. Axon Is Going All-In on AI

At their annual Axon Week conference in April 2026, the company unveiled three new AI-powered tools aimed at transforming how emergency agencies work:

• Axon Vision: An AI layer that processes live video feeds and sends real-time alerts to officers and dispatchers.

• Axon Assistant (expanded): A voice and data assistant, now available across more devices, that helps officers access information hands-free in the field. It’s built to comply with strict law enforcement data privacy standards (called CJIS compliance).

• Axon 911: A completely reimagined emergency dispatch platform powered by AI, connecting the moment a 911 call comes in all the way through to when an officer closes the case.

The big idea: today’s police departments are drowning in data, hours of video, thousands of 911 calls, mountains of reports.

Axon’s AI tools aim to turn that data overload into real-time intelligence that helps first responders act faster and smarter.

3. Axon Is Reinventing 911 Through Acquisitions

One of the boldest moves Axon has made recently is its push to own the 911 call center experience. In late 2025 and early 2026, they made two major acquisitions:

• Prepared: An AI startup bringing livestreaming, real-time translation, and smarter dispatch tools to emergency call centers (reportedly ~$800 million deal).

• Carbyne: A cloud-native platform that handles how 911 calls are received and routed, serving agencies that protect over 250 million people worldwide (valued at $625 million).

Together, these became the foundation of Axon 911, their new integrated emergency communications product.

This is a massive expansion of Axon’s addressable market, the 911 infrastructure space is large, largely outdated, and ripe for modernization.

4. Analysts Are Bullish on the fundamentals

Despite the good fundamentals, Axon’s stock has faced some pressure in 2026. The share price has declined roughly 22% year-to-date (as of Q1 2026 reporting), partly due to broader market volatility and concerns about margin pressure from heavy investment spending.

Analysts are projecting a 125% swing in earnings per share compared to a loss in the same quarter last year.

If Axon can beat expectations again, it could be a catalyst to close the gap between where the stock trades and where analysts think it should be.

5. A $1.3 Billion New HQ

Axon is building a massive $1.3 billion new headquarters in Scottsdale, Arizona. This signals long-term confidence from leadership in the company’s growth trajectory. But the project has run into legal challenges, with lawsuits contesting parts of the development plan.

This isn’t an existential risk to the company, but it does introduce some uncertainty around costs and timelines.

Investors should keep an eye on how quickly Axon resolves these hurdles, unexpected construction delays or cost overruns could put modest pressure on cash flow in the near term.

The Bottom Line for Investors

Axon is no longer just a TASER company. It is building a comprehensive, AI-powered operating system for public safety, one that ties together devices, software, communications, and data under one ecosystem.

Their revenue growth is strong, their bookings pipeline is exceptional, and their AI product push is ambitious.

The risks to watch: margin pressure from heavy R&D and acquisition spending, legal challenges around the new HQ, and a stock that has re-rated lower amid broader market turbulence.

Disclaimer:
All information here is for educational purposes only. This is not financial advice. Please do your own research and speak with a licensed advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. How we invest may not suit your investment goals and risk management profile.

Dear Investor.

Zee here. The most underrated skill in investing isn't finding an investing opportunity, it's knowing when to leave one on the table. Especially important as the markets grow sky high.

Earlier this quarter, Netflix reached into Warner Bros.’ cookie jar and pulled out a $2.8 billion termination fee after David Ellison Jr. (Oracle’s founder son) decided he wanted the deal more. Netflix had been in the running to acquire Paramount, and when the price crept beyond what made sense for the business and its shareholders, they walked.

It’s easy to gloss over this. In the day-to-day noise of earnings calls and market moves, a deal that didn’t happen barely registers.

Co-CEO Ted Sarandos put it plainly on the earnings call:

Read that again. They framed a deal they didn’t do as a benefit. Not a loss. Not a near-miss. A test of discipline and they passed it.

Why this is harder than it looks

Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) processes have a gravitational pull. The longer you’re inside one, the due diligence, the lawyers, the internal champions, the press speculation, the harder it becomes to exit cleanly. Sunk costs start to feel like commitments.

Walking away can feel like failure, even when it’s the right call.

This isn’t unique to corporate boards. Every investor knows the feeling: you’ve spent weeks researching a stock, you’ve told your friends about it, you’ve watched it rally slightly, and now the valuation doesn’t quite work the way it did when you started.

Do you buy anyway? Most people do. The research itself becomes a reason to commit.

Netflix didn’t.

That matters.

Three lessons for investors

Lesson 1: Know your number before the process begins

Netflix clearly had a ceiling, a price at which the deal stopped making sense. They likely had it before Ellison entered the picture. The ability to walk away starts with having a predetermined exit point. As a portfolio investor, that means setting a target valuation before you buy, and revisiting it when the story changes, not after you’re emotionally committed to being right.

Lesson 2: Emotion is a cost, not just a feeling

Sarandos explicitly named ego as something that had to be set aside. That’s rare. Most executives and most investors don’t acknowledge that ego is a factor at all. But the desire to be seen as decisive, to “win” a deal or a trade, to not look like you hesitated these are real forces that distort judgment and cost money. Naming the emotion is the first step to not paying for it.

Lesson 3: Discipline compounds just like capital does

Netflix didn’t just avoid a bad deal. They built evidence, for themselves, for their board, for their shareholders, that their decision-making process works. In investing, a track record of disciplined passes is as valuable as a track record of good picks. Every time you avoid an overpriced entry or a panic-driven exit, you’re strengthening a muscle that pays dividends for decades.

What to watch for in management teams

When I evaluate companies, I pay close attention to how management talks about deals they didn’t do. A team that can articulate why they passed and frame that pass as a success, is a team that’s thinking clearly about capital allocation. That’s rare.

Most investor calls are about what was won. This one was about what was wisely left on the table.

I’ll take that signal seriously.

Only time will tell whether Netflix’s ultimate M&A strategy plays out, but the discipline on display here gives me real confidence in the people running the company. And in this environment, confidence in management is one of the most undervalued assets you can hold.

As always: the best investment you don’t make is still a good investment.

Disclaimer:

All information here is for educational purposes only. This is not financial advice. Please do your own research and speak with a licensed advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. How we invest may not suit your investment goals and risk management profile.

Dear Investor.

Zee here. Every time someone taps a card, clicks “pay now,” or sends money across borders, there’s a good chance Visa had something to do with it. With over $4.5 trillion processed in a single quarter, Visa isn’t just a payments company, it’s the invisible infrastructure beneath the global economy.

But Visa isn’t standing still.

Beneath the steady earnings beats and reliable dividend, something bigger is happening: the company is quietly repositioning itself for a world where AI agents do your shopping, digital dollars move across borders instantly, and the very definition of a “payment” is changing.

Join us on Wednesday 6 May 2026 (7:30-915pm SG Time), for our live Free webinar, where we cover:

* Our resilient investing strategy that we use in our public portfolio

* Stock Analysis: Will Visa be disrupted by AI?

Attendees will also get preview our new AI Powered Stock Market Simulator game where you’ll learn about your investing strengths and weakness.

👉🏼 Click here to reserve a spot. (LINK)

First, What Does Visa Actually Do?

Think of Visa as the world’s most important toll road, but for money.

When you tap your card at a coffee cafe, Visa doesn’t give you the money or lend it to you. What it does is act as the trusted “middleman” that connects your bank to the merchant’s bank in a fraction of a second, making sure the transaction is secure, fast, and reliable. For every transaction that passes through its network, Visa earns a small fee.

Multiply that by trillions of dollars in purchases every year across more than 200 countries, and you start to see why Visa is one of the most profitable businesses on earth.

Visa doesn’t take on credit risk (that’s the bank’s job). It just owns the rails that money travels on, and those rails are used billions of times a day.

1. The Growing Business

Visa’s most recent quarterly results (Q1 of its fiscal year 2026, covering October–December 2025) were outstanding.

Revenue hit $10.9 billion, up 15% from the same period a year ago and that beat what Wall Street analysts had expected. Earnings per share came in at $3.17, also ahead of forecasts.

Payment volumes, the total dollar value of all transactions on Visa’s network, grew 8% to roughly $4.5 trillion in just one quarter.

What’s driving this? Strong consumer spending, a busy holiday shopping season, and surging cross-border transactions (people travelling and spending abroad), which grew 11%.

The CEO described Visa as a “payments hyperscaler”, a company whose infrastructure scales effortlessly as more spending flows through it. Management expects “low-double-digit” growth to continue for the rest of the year.

For investors, this is a business that consistently grows, beats expectations, and generates enormous amounts of cash.

2. Visa Is Betting Big on AI-Powered Shopping

Here’s the most exciting development for the future: Visa is positioning itself at the centre of “agentic commerce”, a world where AI assistants don’t just recommend products, but actually buy things on your behalf.

Imagine telling your AI assistant, “Book me a flight and hotel for my Tokyo trip,” and it just handles everything, finding, comparing, and paying, without you lifting a finger. For that to work safely, there needs to be a trusted payment layer. That’s where Visa comes in.

Visa has launched its Intelligent Commerce platform and a Trusted Agent Protocol, essentially a set of rules and tools that allow AI agents to make payments securely on behalf of consumers at over 150 million Visa-accepting merchants worldwide.

This week, Visa unveiled Intelligent Commerce Connect, a new solution helping businesses plug into AI-powered commerce.

Visa research shows that 47% of US shoppers already use AI tools for at least one shopping task. The company believes that by the 2026 holiday season, millions of consumers will use AI agents to complete purchases.

By building the infrastructure now, Visa is ensuring it remains the trusted payment layer, even as how we shop is fundamentally transformed.

3. Stablecoins: Visa Is Already Ahead of the Curve

You may have heard of “stablecoins”, these are digital currencies pegged to real-world currencies like the US dollar. Unlike Bitcoin, they don’t fluctuate wildly in value. Think of them as digital dollars that can move instantly across the internet.

Visa has been quietly building a major position here. It already supports over 130 stablecoin-linked card programmes in more than 50 countries, and its stablecoin settlement volume has reached a run rate of $4.6 billion globally. In simple terms: real money is already flowing through Visa’s stablecoin infrastructure.

Why does this matter for investors?

Stablecoins could eventually allow faster, cheaper international payments and Visa wants to be the trusted bridge between the old financial world and this new one, rather than be disrupted by it. As stablecoin regulations become clearer (especially in markets like Singapore, Hong Kong, and Japan), Visa’s early investments could translate into significant new revenue streams.

4. A Long Legal Saga Is Finally Clearing Up

For over 20 years, Visa has been tangled in lawsuits from merchants over interchange fees, the small percentage businesses pay every time a customer swipes a card. Merchants argued these fees were unfairly high and anti-competitive.

The good news: this legal overhang is substantially resolving. Visa have recently settled the final interchange fee claims from about 65 major retailers in a New York case, including big names like Nike, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Crate & Barrel, and Amtrak.

In total, Visa has paid out $4.2 billion from its litigation escrow between 2023 and early 2026.

A broader class-action settlement covering millions of merchants is still working through court approval, and a separate injunctive case continues in Brooklyn. There’s also a litigation provision of $707 million that hit Visa’s earnings this quarter. But the direction of travel is clear, the biggest legal clouds are lifting, reducing one of the key risks that has hung over the stock for years.

5. Earnings Update: Visa reported its fiscal Q2 2026 results on April 28, 2026

Visa posted $11.2 billion in quarterly revenue, up 17% from a year ago. The growth was broad-based, driven by more people spending on cards, more international trips, and more online purchases. When a company of Visa's size grows this quickly, it signals genuine demand momentum rather than accounting tricks.

CEO Ryan McInerney devoted significant time on the earnings call to what the company calls "agentic commerce", which are AI assistants that shop and pay on your behalf, without you lifting a finger. Visa has already completed hundreds of secure AI-initiated transactions with partners and launched a "Trusted Agent Protocol" to help merchants verify whether it's a legitimate AI agent or a malicious bot making a purchase.

Visa’s management sees this as a structural growth driver: more AI agents buying things means more transactions, more microtransactions, and more fees flowing through Visa's network.

Disclaimer:
All information here is for educational purposes only. This is not financial advice. Please do your own research and speak with a licensed advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. How we invest may not suit your investment goals and risk management profile.

Dear Investor.

Zee here. The man who steered America’s economy through a pandemic, a rate crisis, and a war is handed over the keys yesterday, April 29th 2026.

Most people have never heard Jerome Powell speak. But every time they pay for groceries, take out a loan, or check their mortgage rate, his decisions are behind it.

Yesterday, after more than eight years steering America's economy through its wildest chapter in decades, Powell chairs his final meeting as Federal Reserve Chairman. This is the story of what he did, what it meant, and who takes over from here."

Join us on Wednesday 6 May 2026 (7:30-915pm SG Time), for our live Free webinar, where we cover:

* Our resilient investing strategy that we use in our public portfolio

* Stock Analysis: Will Visa be disrupted by AI?

Attendees will also get preview our new AI Powered Stock Market Simulator game where you’ll learn about your investing strengths and weakness.

👉🏼 Click here to reserve a spot. (LINK)

Who is Jerome Powell?

Jerome Powell is the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, which is America’s central bank. Think of him as the person in charge of the country’s economic thermostat. His main job?

Set interest rates to keep inflation low and people employed. When he raises rates, borrowing gets more expensive (slows the economy). When he cuts them, borrowing gets cheaper (stimulates growth). Since 2018, Powell has been the most powerful economic voice in the world.

Jerome Powell Timeline

2018 — Takes charge

Powell is confirmed as Fed Chair by Trump, replacing Janet Yellen. He was seen as a steady, pragmatic choice.

2020 — COVID crisis

The economy collapses almost overnight. Powell slashes rates to near zero and floods the system with emergency cash to prevent a depression.

2022 to 2023 — The great rate hike

Inflation hits a 40-year high. Powell triggers the fastest rate hike cycle in modern history, 11 hikes in a row, bringing rates to 5.25–5.5%. Critics called it too slow; others called it too fast. He held the line.

2024 to 2025 — Cutting begins

With inflation cooling, Powell pivots to cuts. But geopolitical turbulence, including the war in Iran — forces a cautious approach. Rates settle at 3.5–3.75%.

April 29, 2026 — Final press conference

Yesterday, Powell wraps up his final FOMC meeting as Chair and holds his last press conference as head of the world’s most important central bank.

What’s happening right now?

Yesterday night was a historic one. Powell is chairing his final Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the regular gathering where the Fed decides what to do with interest rates.

As expected, rates are being held steady at 3.5% to 3.75%. No cut, no hike.

The Fed is essentially pressing pause while it watches how the Iran conflict plays out, higher oil prices are pushing up inflation, which makes cutting rates risky right now.

Enter Kevin Warsh

Powell’s successor is Kevin Warsh, nominated by President Trump. Warsh is a well-known figure in financial circles, he served on the Federal Reserve Board during the 2008 global financial crisis as Ben Bernanke’s right-hand man, which earned him deep credibility on Wall Street.

The last hurdle to his confirmation, a Justice Department probe into Powell over a headquarters renovation, was cleared over the weekend.

With holdout Senator Thom Tillis now on board, Warsh is expected to be confirmed by the Senate Banking Committee today and officially takes over from Powell in May.

What to watch for next

1. Powell’s final words: Will he confirm whether he’ll stay on the Fed’s Board of Governors (his governor term runs until 2028)? Staying on could create tension with Warsh’s agenda.

2. Warsh’s direction: He’s expected to shake things up, possibly eliminating the Fed’s ‘dot plot’ forecasts and reducing press conferences.

3. Rate cuts in 2026? Markets only price in an estimated 20% chance of any cut by year-end. The Iran war makes the path forward murky.

Disclaimer:

All information here is for educational purposes only. This is not financial advice. Please do your own research and speak with a licensed advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. How we invest may not suit your investment goals and risk management profile.

Dear Investor.

Zee here. DBS Group Holdings (SGX: D05) is Southeast Asia’s largest bank by assets, with operations spanning 19 countries and a market capitalization of over USD 124 billion.

From helping multinational corporations move money across borders, to managing the wealth of Asia’s growing affluent class, to backing small businesses with loans, DBS does it all, and at a scale few banks in the region can match.

2025 was a year that tested banks worldwide. Interest rates fell, global markets were volatile, and a new global minimum tax added pressure on profits.

Yet DBS came through with record total income, a landmark dividend increase, and a seamless change in leadership.

In short: the bank didn’t just survive a tough year — it thrived.

Join us on Wednesday 6 May 2026 (7:30-915pm SG Time), for our live Free webinar, where we cover:

* Our resilient investing strategy that we use in our public portfolio

* Stock Analysis: Will Visa be disrupted by AI?

Attendees will also get preview our new AI Powered Stock Market Simulator game where you’ll learn about your investing strengths and weakness.

👉🏼 Click here to reserve a spot. (LINK)

First, What Exactly Is DBS?

Think of DBS (Development Bank of Singapore) as the region’s financial powerhouse. It’s the largest bank in Southeast Asia, headquartered in Singapore, and listed on the Singapore Exchange (SGX: D05).

DBS offers everything you’d expect from a major bank, loans, savings accounts, credit cards, wealth management, and investment services but at a scale that spans 19 countries across Asia.

Its key growth markets sit along three major Asian axes: Greater China (Hong Kong, China, Taiwan), Southeast Asia (Singapore, Indonesia, India), and South Asia.

With SGD 897 billion in total assets as of end-2025, DBS is not just Singapore’s most valuable brand for the 14th year in a row, it’s also ranked among the top 25 banks in the world by market capitalization.

Global finance publications like Euromoney and The Banker have consistently named it the “World’s Best Bank.” In short: this is a blue-chip institution that serious investors in Asia pay close attention to.

1. Record Revenue, Even in a Tough Year

Despite one of the most challenging interest rate environments in recent years, DBS managed to grow its top line. Total income rose 3% to a new all-time high of SGD 22.1 billion, and profit before tax climbed 1% to a record SGD 13.1 billion.

Net profit did dip 3% to SGD 10.9 billion, but here’s the important part: management was upfront that this had nothing to do with the business itself. It was entirely due to a new 15% global minimum tax applied in Singapore starting 2025. Strip that out, and the underlying business story remains one of consistent strength.

DBS is generating more revenue than ever before. The profit dip is a one-off tax adjustment, not a signal of business weakness.

2. Dividends Are Up

For investors who love getting paid just to hold a stock, DBS has become one of the most attractive dividend plays in Singapore.

DBS paid a dividend per share of SGD 3.06 in 2025, up significantly from SGD 2.22 in 2024- that’s a jump of nearly 38% in a single year. Zooming out further, DBS has delivered a five-year dividend growth rate of around 25% per year, which is exceptional for a large, established bank.

The bank pays dividends quarterly, meaning shareholders receive income four times a year rather than waiting for an annual payout. The current dividend yield sits at around 5%, making it competitive with many fixed deposits and bonds, but with the added upside potential of share price appreciation.

Looking ahead, analysts expect DBS to pay approximately SGD 3.36 per share over the next 12 months, suggesting the dividend could continue growing even from here.

DBS isn’t just a growth story, it’s an income story too. A ~5% yield paid out quarterly, backed by a bank with record revenues and a strong balance sheet, makes DBS a compelling option for investors who want steady, growing cash flow from their portfolio.

Just keep in mind that dividends are never guaranteed and can change with business conditions.

3. Wealth Management Is a Growing Engine

One of DBS’s most exciting growth stories is wealth management, helping wealthy clients grow and protect their money. The bank recorded record net new money inflows in 2025, and its Assets Under Management (AUM) has doubled since 2019.

Even with some global market turbulence in early 2026 (due to Middle East tensions making investors cautious), analysts believe DBS’s wealth management momentum remains solid.

In fact, the recent Middle-East uncertainty may be driving more wealthy individuals to park their money in stable Singapore, which could mean even more inflows ahead.

Wealth management generates fees regardless of interest rates, making it a more stable, growing revenue stream that reduces the bank’s reliance on any single income source.

4. AI Investment Is Already Paying Off

New CEO Tan Su Shan, who took over from the long-serving Piyush Gupta in 2025, has made AI a central pillar of DBS’s strategy. The bank has been investing heavily in artificial intelligence, and it’s not just talk.

DBS has been using AI to improve customer service, streamline operations, reduce costs, and detect fraud faster. Management confirmed at the 2026 AGM that AI adoption is delivering measurable results for the bank’s bottom line.

The CEO emphasized how AI is now deeply embedded in the bank’s operations and strategic direction, evolving from a trendy concept into a proven driver of value, contributing around SGD 1 billion in economic impact in 2025.

DBS currently operates more than 2,000 AI models across 430 use cases, with roughly two-thirds of its workforce relying on DBS-GPT for everyday tasks such as research and writing.

Productivity gains are evident: the bank’s data scientists using CodeBuddy have reduced coding time by 20%, while the technology team has shortened deployment cycles by 25%.

Meanwhile, DBS Joy, its generative AI-powered chatbot for corporate banking, has already onboarded over 20,000 users and lifted customer satisfaction levels by 23%.

5. Brand Value Is Growing and So Is Global Recognition

DBS’s brand value rose 8% to USD 18.6 billion in 2026, according to global consultancy Brand Finance, making it Singapore’s most valuable brand for the 14th consecutive year in a row. It also ranks as the 7th most valuable bank brand in Asia Pacific.

A strong and growing brand helps DBS attract more customers and talent, supports premium pricing for its services, and signals long-term competitive durability.

The Bottom Line

DBS is navigating a world of rising taxes, geopolitical uncertainty, and shifting interest rates and it’s doing so from a position of strength.

Record revenues, a big dividend increase, booming wealth management, AI investment paying off, and a globally recognized brand make this a company that continues to earn its place in many Asian investors’ portfolios.

DBS’s diversified business model and proactive management give it a resilient foundation.

Disclaimer:

All information here is for educational purposes only. This is not financial advice. Please do your own research and speak with a licensed advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. How we invest may not suit your investment goals and risk management profile.

Dear Investor,

Zee here. What a recovery! In red markets, it is very important to stick to facts- like how the Current S&P 500 profit margin is at an all-time record of 15%.

The S&P500 is now trading at an All Time High (ATH), which also means that if you are in poor fundamental stocks, and they are still dropping the market is pricing them fairly as poor fundamental stocks. Time to review those.

And here it is... Time of the month again, to share our monthly update on our portfolio. You can read last month’s portfolio update here.

Public Portfolio Update: April 2026

YTD performance: 10.67%

MTD performance: 21.11% (Dark blue line S&P500 at 8.0%)

Cash left uninvested: 35% Cash

Note: No new additions to the portfolio.

Our Portfolio Review:

(1) During the down markets, we kept investing in our watchlist ready of high quality conviction stocks and good ETFs, till we ran out of cash in February.

(2) Lesson learnt: To keep at least 10% cash for super good deals. (For example, prices below the 200 days Moving Average.)

(3) We took partial profits by selling 35% of our positions, as the market flew to All Time High (ATH).

Disclaimer:

All information here is for educational purposes only. This is not financial advice. Please do your own research and speak with a licensed advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. How we invest may not suit your investment goals and risk management profile.

Dear Investors.

Zee here. While the world debates which AI company will win, a quieter story is playing out in the industrial parks of Chonburi, Thailand.

Fabrinet, a name most retail investors have never come across, manufactures the precision optical components that sit inside every major AI data centre on earth.

No flashy consumer products. No viral demos. Just extraordinarily precise manufacturing, at massive scale, for the companies building the backbone of the AI era.

Its stock has risen 250% in a year, it just posted a record quarter, and it's building one of the largest factories in Southeast Asia.

Here's what you need to know.

What does Fabrinet actually do?

Imagine you’ve invented a revolutionary new component that sits inside the world’s fastest fibre-optic cables and data centres, a tiny device that can send data at the speed of light.

You have the design and the customers, but building a factory to make thousands of these things a day, to incredibly precise tolerances, would cost you hundreds of millions of dollars and take years.

So instead, you call Fabrinet.

Fabrinet (NYSE: FN) is a specialist contract manufacturer based in Thailand. It builds complex optical, electro-mechanical and electronic components on behalf of the world’s leading technology companies, names like Cisco, Coherent, II-VI and others. These aren’t ordinary parts. They’re precision-engineered products used in fibre-optic communications, AI data centres, medical devices, industrial lasers, and automotive sensors. The kind of products where even a microscopic imperfection can cause failure.

Founded in 1999 and listed on the New York Stock Exchange since 2010, Fabrinet has quietly grown from a small Thai manufacturer into one of the most strategically important companies in the global tech supply chain. It employs over 16,000 people, generates more than $4 billion in annual revenue, and has become an indispensable link between the companies that design next-generation tech and the data centres and networks that power the modern world.

As AI infrastructure spending has exploded, Fabrinet has found itself in an almost uniquely privileged position, right in the middle of the supply chain for the components the AI boom simply cannot function without.

Revenue just hit a record and crushed expectations

Fabrinet’s most recent quarterly results, covering the three months to December 2025, were nothing short of extraordinary. Revenue hit $1.13 billion, a record high, up 36% from the same quarter a year earlier, and up 16% compared with just the previous quarter. To put that in context, a year ago Fabrinet was doing around $830 million a quarter. The pace of growth has been dramatic.

Earnings were equally impressive. Non-GAAP (adjusted) earnings per share came in at $3.36, beating the company’s own guidance of $3.25 by about 3%.

CEO Seamus Grady called it an “exceptional quarter,” crediting multiple large strategic programmes across the business all contributing simultaneously, a sign that the growth isn’t coming from just one lucky contract but is broad-based.

AI data centres are supercharging demand and it’s only getting started

If you want to understand why Fabrinet is growing so fast, you need to understand what’s happening inside today’s AI data centres. When companies like Amazon, Microsoft, Google and Meta build the giant server farms that power AI models, they don’t just need more computers — they need an enormous amount of incredibly fast optical networking equipment to connect all those computers together. Data needs to move between thousands of servers at near-light speed, with minimal delay. The components that make that possible: transceivers, optical modules, photonic switches, are exactly what Fabrinet manufactures.

The numbers tell the story. Fabrinet’s high-performance computing (HPC) segment essentially its AI-focused business, exploded from $15 million in revenue in Q1 FY2026 to $86 million in Q2. Management expects this to reach over $150 million per quarter when fully ramped.

That’s a tenfold increase in just a few quarters, driven largely by a new relationship with Amazon Web Services. Meanwhile, data centre interconnect modules, another AI-critical product, grew 42% year-on-year, and even the traditional telecom segment surged 66%.

Fabrinet also showcased its role in the AI ecosystem at the Optical Fiber Communication Conference (OFC) 2026 in Los Angeles in March, where it hosted two investor Q&A sessions. Demonstrations and customer engagements at the event reinforced the company’s central position in co-packaged optics, optical circuit switching and next-generation interconnects, technologies that will define AI networking for the next decade.

The broad takeaway from the conference: AI data centre spending is accelerating, not slowing, and Fabrinet is positioned squarely in the path of that spend.

A new silicon photonics deal puts Fabrinet at the cutting edge of AI networking

In mid-March 2026, Fabrinet announced an expanded manufacturing partnership with iPronics, a specialist in silicon photonics technology. This is worth understanding in some detail, because it points to where AI networking is heading next.

Traditional data centre networks use electronic switches to route data, essentially, data gets converted from light to electricity, directed to the right place, then converted back to light again. This process creates latency (tiny delays) and consumes significant power. Silicon photonics-based optical circuit switching bypasses the electrical conversion entirely, keeping data as light throughout the journey. The result is faster, lower-latency, more energy-efficient networks, exactly what AI workloads demand, since large AI models require thousands of servers communicating with each other constantly at extreme speeds.

Under the expanded deal, Fabrinet is adding a dedicated production line for iPronics’ silicon photonics optical circuit switching systems, specifically targeting AI-focused data centre customers. Full operations are targeted for June 2026. This isn’t just a small add-on contract, it positions Fabrinet as a manufacturer of choice in a technology segment that many analysts believe will become a standard feature of AI data centres within the next few years. First-mover advantage in high-margin, technically complex manufacturing is exactly the kind of moat Fabrinet has historically built its business on.

A giant new factory is being built, capacity could nearly double

Record demand requires record capacity, and Fabrinet is making a major bet on the future. The company is currently constructing Building 10 at its Chonburi campus in Thailand, a massive 2-million-square-foot facility that will be one of the largest precision manufacturing plants in Southeast Asia. When fully ramped, management estimates it could add approximately $3 billion in annual revenue capacity on top of existing operations.

To put the scale in perspective: Fabrinet’s current manufacturing capacity is estimated at around $5.5 billion annually. Adding Building 10 and completing further conversions at its Pinehurst campus could push total capacity to $8.5 billion or more, nearly double current levels. Initial phases of Building 10 are expected to come online through the course of 2026, giving investors something concrete to watch for in upcoming quarterly updates.

The expansion is not without cost. Capital expenditures surged 136% year-on-year in Q2, briefly pushing free cash flow negative (to -$5.35 million). Total liabilities rose 55% year-on-year as the company funds the build-out. This is a deliberate, strategic investment and most analysts view it positively as a signal of genuine confidence in sustained demand but it does mean the company is in a spending cycle right now. Investors should expect capital expenditure to remain elevated through 2026 as construction continues.

In February 2026, Fabrinet also published its 2025 Corporate Responsibility Report, detailing 233 green projects that reduced electricity consumption and emissions intensity at its Thai factories. As ESG factors increasingly influence where major tech companies place their manufacturing contracts, this kind of track record matters — it's not just good optics, it's a competitive differentiator when customers are choosing between suppliers.

The stock has had a massive run, here’s what could go wrong

Fabrinet’s stock has risen almost 250% in the past year alone, climbing from around $174 to a record high of $679 in April 2026. That kind of run reflects genuine business momentum, but it also means the bar for disappointment is now very high.

(I) Valuation

Fabrinet trades at a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of roughly 53x, meaning investors are paying $53 for every $1 of current earnings. The forward P/E (based on expected future earnings) is a more reasonable 13x, reflecting how fast earnings are growing. The PEG ratio (which adjusts for growth) sits at around 1.19, not cheap, but not bubble territory either.

Analyst consensus price targets cluster between $530 and $582, with some optimistic forecasts reaching $715. The fact that current prices are above most analyst targets is worth noting.

(II) Customer concentration

Fabrinet’s revenues are heavily dependent on a handful of large technology customers. If one or two of those customers slows orders, because their own AI buildout pauses, because they bring manufacturing in-house, or because demand softens, Fabrinet’s revenue could drop sharply. This is a structural risk in the contract manufacturing business model.

(III) Leadership transition

In October 2025, Tom Mitchell, the founder who built Fabrinet from a startup in 2000 into the company it is today, retired after 25 years. He had already handed over the CEO role to Seamus Grady in 2017, but his departure as Chairman nonetheless removes one of the company’s most knowledgeable long-term stewards at a pivotal moment of growth. Grady has performed well, but it’s a transition worth monitoring.

(IV) Insider selling

CEO Grady sold 22,451 shares in a single day in November 2025, and director Thomas Kelly sold additional shares in February 2026. Insider selling doesn’t always signal a problem, executives often sell shares for personal financial planning — but large single-day sales by senior figures are always worth being aware of as an investor.

(V) Margin pressure

Heavy capital investment in new facilities, combined with the complexity of ramping up new production lines, creates execution risk. If Building 10 takes longer than expected to ramp, or if new programmes like iPronics silicon photonics prove harder to scale than anticipated, margins could come under pressure in the near term.

What to watch next:

Fabrinet's next earnings call is scheduled for 4 May 2026.

Key things to listen for: the pace of Building 10 construction and when it begins contributing revenue, progress on the iPronics silicon photonics ramp, any commentary on co-packaged optics adoption timelines, and whether the HPC segment is tracking toward management's $150M+ quarterly target.

Guidance for Q4 FY2026 will also give investors a clearer picture of whether the current growth trajectory is sustainable through the rest of the year.

Disclaimer: All information here is for educational purposes only. This is not financial advice. Please do your own research and speak with a licensed advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future returns, and that’s exactly the point.

Dear Investors.

Zee here. During a public Live Free webinar on 18th March 2026, I shared the market is heavily discounted, despite the negative headlines of Oil shortages, Rising Oil prices, Blocked straits of hormuz and US-Iran War.

Common responses I received were: Too Risky Now

Back then when the Stocks were at high: I’ll wait for the crash.

Last Thursday, I wrote about fundamentally strong the companies in S&P500 were, given their rising Nett Profit Margins. Proud that several of our students saw the Great Sale and took action.

Since the public Live Free webinar on 18th March 2026, the market rallied about 6%.

I will share my thoughts of the markets moving forward on next Free live Webinar on Monday 20th April 2026 (Details below).

Few investing quotes have stood the test of time like this one from Warren Buffett: “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.”

It sounds simple. It’s anything but.

What does it actually mean?

Buffett’s point is that markets are driven by human emotion just as much as by logic.

When everyone around you is excited and piling into stocks, prices tend to be inflated that’s the time to be cautious. But when panic sets in and investors are selling everything in sight, prices often drop below what businesses are truly worth and that’s when real opportunities emerge.

In short: don’t follow the crowd. The crowd is usually wrong at the extremes.

How do you know if the market is fearful or greedy now?

Enter the CNN Fear & Greed Index

CNN’s Fear & Greed Index is a tool designed to measure what emotion is currently driving the stock market. It’s one of the most practical ways to put Buffett’s philosophy into action.

The index is built from seven different market indicators: market momentum, stock price strength, stock price breadth, put and call options, junk bond demand, market volatility, and safe haven demand.

Each one captures a different slice of how investors are behaving right now.

The theory behind the index is straightforward: excessive fear tends to push share prices down, while too much greed tends to push them up beyond fair value.

Neither extreme lasts forever.

The index gives each indicator equal weighting and produces a score from 0 to 100 — with 100 representing maximum greed and 0 signaling maximum fear.

Here’s a quick plain-English breakdown of what each indicator measures:

• Market Momentum — When the S&P 500 is trading above its 125-day average, it signals positive momentum and greed; below it suggests investors are getting nervous.

• Stock Price Strength — This tracks how many stocks are hitting 52-week highs versus lows on the NYSE. Many more highs than lows is a bullish, greedy sign.

• Market Volatility — The VIX measures expected price swings in the S&P 500 over the next 30 days. It tends to be lower in bull markets and spikes when fear takes over.

• Safe Haven Demand — When investors are scared, they flee to bonds. This indicator measures the gap between bond and stock returns over the past 20 trading days.

• Junk Bond Demand — When investors are willing to take on riskier bonds, the yield spread between junk bonds and safer government bonds narrows, a sign of greed.

Application: The hardest part

Here’s the catch, and why Buffett’s quote is so much easier to admire than to act on. Buying when others are panicking feels terrible. It goes against every instinct.

When markets are falling and headlines are grim, the natural urge is to do what everyone else is doing: sell and run.

That’s exactly what Buffett says you shouldn’t do.

The Fear & Greed Index won’t tell you what to buy or when to buy it. Used alongside fundamental analysis and other tools, it can serve as a helpful gut-check on market sentiment- a way to ask yourself: am I making this decision based on real value, or am I just following the herd?

Link to CNN Fear and Greed Index

Disclaimer: All information here is for educational purposes only. This is not financial advice. Please do your own research and speak with a licensed advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future returns, and that’s exactly the point.

Dear Investors.

Zee here. Here's something that will make any value investor do a double-take. Trip.com, which is Asia's largest online travel platform, growing revenue at 17% a year with US$15 billion in the bank is currently trading at a P/E ratio of just 7.

Single digits. For a company this size, that almost never happens.

To put that in context: the average stock in the travel industry trades at P/E ratio of 20x, while Booking Holdings, Trip.com's closest global competitor, trades at over P/E ratio of 20x.

So why is the market pricing it like a distressed asset?

That's exactly what we're going to unpack today.

#1 The Latest Numbers: Stronger Than Expected

Trip.com’s Q4 2025 earnings beat analyst expectations on both revenue and profit. The company reported Q4 revenue of RMB 15.4 billion (US$2.2 billion), up 21% year-on-year, with full-year 2025 revenue hitting RMB 62.4 billion — a 17% jump from 2024.

Earnings per ADS came in at RMB 4.97 on a non-GAAP basis, beating the forecast of RMB 4.77.

Even more reassuring: Trip.com is sitting on RMB 105.8 billion (US$15 billion) in cash and cash equivalents as of end-2025.

Hotel bookings grew 21%.

Flight and transport ticketing grew 11%.

Corporate travel revenue rose 13%.

In simple terms: the core travel business is healthy. People across Asia are travelling more, and Trip.com is capturing that demand.

#2 International Growth Is the Real Engine

Here’s what’s quietly impressive: Trip.com is no longer just a China travel story.

Its international OTA (online travel agency) platform, the part of the business serving travelers outside China, grew bookings by approximately 60% year-on-year in 2025. That’s three times faster than the overall business. International revenue now contributes 40% of total bookings and revenue.

Inbound tourism, foreigners travelling into China, nearly doubled year-on-year, with 20 million inbound travelers served in 2025. To back this push, Trip.com invested over RMB 1 billion in inbound travel initiatives and launched a US$100 million Tourism Innovation Fund.

The Asia-Pacific region is leading the charge, with SEA markets like Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand emerging as key feeder markets for travel into China.

#3 A Government Antitrust Probe Wiped Out US$8 Billion in a Day

Now for the headline event that changed everything.

On January 14, 2026, Trip.com disclosed that China’s market regulator, the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR), had launched a formal anti-monopoly investigation into the company.

The market didn’t wait. Trip.com’s stock fell 17% in a single session, erasing over US$8 billion in market value overnight.

The investigation centers on Trip.com’s AI-powered hotel pricing tool. This tool automatically lowered hotel rates on the platform when it detected higher prices listed elsewhere.

That sounds helpful for travelers but regulators allege it was used to force hotel merchants into promotions, penalize non-compliant partners with reduced visibility, and effectively strip merchants of their pricing autonomy.

Trip.com had publicly positioned this tool as “a cornerstone of our long-term strategy.” Shareholders now allege the company understated the regulatory risk it was sitting on.

On March 10, 2026, Trip.com shut down the tool entirely.

#4 Co-Founders Resigned From the Board, With No Explanation

On February 26, 2026, the same day as the Q4 earnings announcement, Trip.com revealed that its co-founders had abruptly resigned from the company’s board of directors, effective the day before.

No explanation was given.

This is the kind of news that makes long-term investors nervous. When co-founders exit without explanation during an active regulatory investigation, questions naturally follow: Was it pressure from SAMR? A board-level disagreement over how to handle the crisis?

We don’t know.

Multiple US securities class action lawsuits have now been filed, alleging that Trip.com misled investors about regulatory risks surrounding its AI pricing tool between April 2024 and January 2026. The lead plaintiff deadline for investors to join these suits is May 11, 2026.

#5 The Stock Looks Cheap. But Cheap Has a Reason

After a 25% decline from its 2025 highs, Trip.com now trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of around 9 times earnings (depending on whether you use GAAP or adjusted figures). For a company growing revenue at 17% to 21% per year, that looks inexpensive by global standards.

US$15 billion in cash provides a massive buffer. International growth is accelerating. Travel demand across Asia remains structurally strong. And the company consistently beats earnings estimates.

But the market is applying a “regulatory discount” — pricing in the possibility that the SAMR investigation results in a significant fine, a forced change to the business model, or lasting damage to its merchant relationships.

China’s regulatory outcomes are unpredictable and can take years to resolve. Removing the AI pricing tool takes away one of Trip.com’s core competitive edges. And the co-founder exits leave a governance question unanswered.

The Bottom Line

Trip.com is a genuinely strong business navigating a serious regulatory storm. The fundamentals, revenue growth, a fortress balance sheet, accelerating international expansion, are all pointing in the right direction.

But the combination of a government antitrust investigation, unexplained co-founder exits, and active shareholder lawsuits creates a layer of uncertainty that the numbers alone can’t resolve.

For investors with a long time horizon and the stomach for China regulatory risk, the current valuation may represent a real opportunity. For those who prefer clarity before committing, watching how the SAMR investigation develops over the next two to three quarters is the more prudent path.

The business can perform. Whether management can navigate the fog — that’s the real question.

Disclaimer: All information here is for educational purposes only. This is not financial advice. Please do your own research and speak with a licensed advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future returns, and that’s exactly the point.

Dear Investor.

Zee here. We published slightly later this week as we changed to a more timely article—one that is particularly relevant in today’s fearful market conditions.

When the stock market dips, it’s natural to feel uneasy. The headlines get louder, the numbers turn red, and it can feel like something has gone fundamentally wrong with the economy. But sometimes, and this is one of those times, the deeper story is actually a very positive one.

Underneath all the short-term noise, the companies that make up the S&P 500 are doing something remarkable: they are earning more profit on every single dollar of sales than at any point in recorded history.

That is not a small detail.

It is one of the most important signals you can look at when trying to understand the health of your investments.

What is a profit margin, and why does it matter?

Let’s start with the basics. A profit margin is simply the percentage of revenue that a company gets to keep after paying all of its costs — wages, rent, raw materials, taxes, and everything else.

If a company earns $15 in profit from every $100 of sales, its profit margin is 15%.

It’s a powerful number. Two companies can have the same total sales figures, but the one with a higher profit margin is the stronger business. It means the company is running efficiently, has pricing power over its competitors, and has room to weather difficult periods without cutting staff or slashing investment.

For investors, rising profit margins across the entire S&P 500 (500 of America’s largest companies) is about as positive a signal as you can find. It means the broad economy of public companies is becoming more productive, not less.

Here are the numbers

Current S&P 500 profit margin: 15% (An all-time record)
Pre-pandemic in December 2019: 12%

The pandemic test and how companies passed it

To appreciate how impressive today’s numbers are, it helps to remember what happened just a few years ago. When the pandemic hit in early 2020, corporate profit margins cratered. Supply chains seized up, costs spiraled, and demand evaporated almost overnight. Margins dropped sharply, a totally understandable response to one of the most disruptive global events in a century.

But rather than simply recovering back to their old levels, companies came back stronger. The crisis forced boardrooms across America to rethink how they operate: automating repetitive tasks, renegotiating supplier contracts, restructuring workforces, and investing heavily in technology. The result was not just a recovery, it was a transformation.

By late 2021, margins had already clawed back to pre-pandemic levels. And since then, they have kept climbing, steadily, year after year, until arriving at today’s record of 15%.

What’s driving the margin expansion?

Three forces are working together to push margins higher.

First, technology investment is paying off. The wave of spending on cloud computing, automation, and artificial intelligence that dominated corporate budgets for the past five years is now showing up as real efficiency gains. Companies are doing more with fewer people and doing it faster.

Second, pricing power has proved remarkably durable. During the inflation spike of 2022 and 2023, many analysts predicted that consumers would push back hard on higher prices and force companies to absorb their rising input costs. Instead, the opposite largely happened, companies passed costs on to customers and held their ground. That pricing confidence has not fully unwound.

Third, the composition of the S&P 500 itself has shifted. The index is now dominated by large technology and services businesses, which naturally carry higher margins than traditional manufacturers or retailers. As these companies have grown, they have pulled the overall index average upward with them.

Doesn’t a market pullback mean something is wrong?

Not necessarily and this is perhaps the most important point for everyday investors to understand. Stock prices fluctuate based on a cocktail of factors: interest rate expectations, geopolitical headlines, investor sentiment, and short-term economic data. None of these things have to move in lockstep with underlying corporate profitability.

What the margin data tells us is that the current period of weakness is about how much investors are willing to pay for earnings, not about the earnings themselves disappearing. The market has gone from pricing stocks at a premium to pricing them at something closer to fair value. That is healthy. It creates a better entry point for long-term investors and reduces the risk of a more serious correction later.

Think of it like a high-street store that has been running a record-breaking year of sales, but whose share price has slipped because one analyst wrote a cautious note about the economy. The underlying business has not changed only the emotions of the room.

The bigger picture for your portfolio

The recent market pullback has been driven almost entirely by valuation drop — investors are simply paying less per dollar of future earnings. It has not been caused by a collapse in those earnings themselves. Forward earnings estimates for the S&P 500 keep rising even as stock prices have wobbled.

A market that falls because profits are collapsing is a very different animal from one that falls because sentiment has cooled on already-healthy businesses.

But here is the takeaway that matters for long-term investors: the engine underneath the American economy’s largest companies is running better than it ever has. Businesses are leaner, more profitable per dollar of revenue, and still growing their forward earnings estimates despite external headwinds.

History has consistently rewarded investors who looked past short-term noise and stayed anchored to what businesses are actually doing.

Disclaimer: All information here is for educational purposes only. This is not financial advice. Please do your own research and speak with a licensed advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future returns, and that’s exactly the point.